Senin, 02 November 2009

affect the world economy weakening domestic economy

JAKARTA - The impact of the global economic slowdown caused disruption predicted strong national macroeconomic conditions. World economic growth is threatened collapse, resulting in a number of factors, including the world's stock market plunge, the decline in primary commodity prices due to the weakening purchasing power, the decline of foreign investor confidence.


Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo), Sofjan Wanandi, in Jakarta, Wednesday (17 / 9) says, predicted global economic slowdown could trigger high inflation so that it can erode the purchasing power of consumers.


Measures of domestic monetary authorities respond by raising the benchmark interest rate (BI Rate) in stages until probably around 10.5 percent of votes Sofjan as counterproductive actions against banking liquidity.


''But, the BI rate increase would be counterproductive to the banking liquidity, so that running a credit to the industrial sector from time to time diminished,''said Sofyan.


Chairman of the Standing Committee of Fiscal and Monetary Sector Kadin Indonesia, Bambang Soesatyo, states that are not channeled loans (undisbursed loan) to the real sector through July 2008 reached Rp208 trillion. Until the end of the year, the credit was channeled not be expected to rise to Rp260 trillion Rp270 trillion.


According to him, the domestic industrial sector are faced with the reality of the business climate is not conducive either monetary or in terms of energy. ''This is the classic barriers that several branches of the national vital industry will continue to grow until the end of 2008 negative,''he said.


In the calculation, the growth in the industry III/2008 quarter (July-September) is estimated to decrease to be around 3.85 percent - 4.0 percent compared with the realization of growth in the quarter II (April-June) of about 4.43 percent. Under these conditions, pessimistic businessmen that the government could achieve the growth target this year is set at 5 percent.


Bambang said, there are four branches of industry will grow negatively, especially in labor-intensive industrial sectors. Due to the impact of the weakening global economy.


The fourth branch of textiles, leather goods and footwear; food beverages (mamin) and tobacco, fertilizers, chemicals and rubber goods, and cement groups and non-metallic minerals.


Chairman of the Indonesian Textile Association (API), Benny Soetrisno, pessimistic performance of textile sector in the third quarter until the end of the year will grow as targeted. ''The growth of this sector is estimated to be -1 percent decline against the realization of quarterly growth of 0.43 percent II/2008,''he said.


Very significant impact on Indonesian textile exports to the United States. ''11 billion export target U.S. Dola difficult to achieve. New investment is difficult because we are embodied electricity crisis,''said Benny.


Experienced similar conditions mamin branch and tobacco industries. The industry growth rate will also drop from 3.43 percent to about 1.5 to 2.5 percent in the third quarter, due to still weak purchasing power of low-income consumers as the impact of rising fuel prices, electricity, and transportation.


Chairman of the Joint Food and Beverage Entrepreneur Indonesia (Gapmmi) Thomas Darmawan, said the decline in the growth of this sector is more due to the drop in the contribution of small-scale sector mamin [IKM]. Medium''big industry can control the occurrence of deterioration,''jabarnya.


Experienced a similar fate branch of the fertilizer industry, chemical and rubber goods, and cement groups, non-metallic minerals, which are predicted to decline respectively 3 percent and -1.5 percent due to rising imported raw material prices in July-August that boosted production costs .


The government confirmed the assessment that industrial growth slumped II quarter. Industrial growth''in the third quarter will decline following the weakening world economy,''said the Head of Research and Development Industry (BPPI) Ministry of Industry (Depperin) RI, Dedi Mulyadi.


However, he said, there are still a number of factors that make the government less optimistic that the growth in the third quarter will be a little bit helped. Ie, with increasing purchasing power by receiving a bonus in the form of THR [holiday allowances] to encourage the consumption of products or manufacturing necessities.


Decrease in crude oil prices to a position of 90 U.S. dollars per barrel also helped industrial production cost and dried. Performance of petroleum-based industries and labor-intensive, he said, would be improved because the decline in oil prices led to declining production costs. - --zaky al hamzah-- --

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